Weak pattern odds at 65% while moderate pattern at 35%
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 3 June, 2014 - El Nino this year will probably be weak, potentially reducing the impact of the event which typically brings drought to parts of Asia and rains to South America, said Commodity Weather Group LLC and AccuWeather Inc.
The chance of a weak pattern is 65 percent and the odds of a moderate one are 35 percent, said David Streit, CWG’s co-founder. The probability of a weak event is 80 percent, said Dale Mohler, a forecaster at AccuWeather. Streit and Mohler have been meteorologists for three decades.
El Ninos can roil world agricultural markets as farmers contend with dry weather or too much rain. Forecasters from the U.S. to the United Nations have warned that the event could happen this year, and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said last month the pattern may develop by August. ABN Amro Group NV says confirmation would bolster coffee, sugar and cocoa futures.
“It’s still a tough call on whether this will remain weak or reach moderate” levels, Streit from Bethesda, Maryland-based CWG said in an e-mail to Bloomberg. A weak event is more likely because of the weakening of the warm pool of water below the surface of the Pacific Ocean and “the difficulty in getting the trade winds to weaken significantly,” he said.