Moche Rip Curl Pro Portugal
ASP Men's World Tour Event
Supertubos, Peniche Portugal
12 - 23 October 2014
Forecast improving, event looks good to run in next few days
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 18 October, 2014 - Continuing onshore winds have forced a fourth consecutive lay day and event organizers will reconvene on Sunday, October 19, 2014 at 7:30 a.m. to make the next call.
“There's a lot of swell leftover in the water, which is great, but unfortunately the wind is still really strong out of the south," said ASP Commissioner, Kieren Perrow. "Forecasts are showing that it's not going to drop off a lot today so we're off. We'll be back tomorrow and we're really confident in the forecast for the next three days, and we should see some really good waves.”
Another strong WNW swell will build through the afternoon on Saturday before slowly easing through Sunday. Wind will also ease on Saturday, but remain onshore from the south. Improving conditions prevail through the day on Sunday as wind backs down further and shifts to a more favorable direction. Monday will see dropping surf but with good local wind/weather conditions. A modest, new WNW groundswell will fill in by Wednesday before easing Thursday.
Surf sizes below are face heights for Supertubos
SATURDAY 18th: New, mid period WNW swell reinforcements build through the afternoon; onshore SSE wind eases
SURF: 6-8’ faces in the morning, rebuilding to 7-10’+ faces in the afternoon with good sets pushing 12’+ faces.
WIND: Wind remains onshore but is easing and shifts more SSE 9-15kts. Mostly cloudy skies.
SUNDAY 19th: Mid period WNW swell slowly eases, strongest in the morning; local wind conditions look likely to improve through late afternoon/evening; stay tuned
SURF: 6-10’+ faces in the morning, with still some larger sets. Easing for the afternoon.
WIND: SE/ESE wind in the morning 6-12kts shifting toward light/variable or a weak sea breeze in the later afternoon/evening and surface conditions should improve through the day. Stay tuned, we will continue to refine this. Partly cloudy/sunny skies.
MONDAY 20th: WNW swell mix dropping off through the day as swell directions shifts more to the NW; favorable local wind/weather looks likely
SURF: 4-6’ faces in the morning, maybe a little better, with a dropping trend through the day. Storm dependent, stay tuned.
WIND: Light+ E wind through the morning shifting more ENE/NE in the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and very pleasant weather.
TUESDAY 21st: Small WNW/NW swell; favorable local wind; small, long period WNW swell may very gradually build late
SURF: 2-3’ faces, some leftover sets to 4’ possible.
WIND: Light ENE shifting NE wind. Stay tuned.
WEDNESDAY 22nd: Modest, long period and likely lully WNW groundswell fills in further; N wind potentially picks up
SURF: 3-4’+ faces, possibly a little better. Dependent on the behavior of current Hurricane Gonzalo as it transitions into an extratropical storm.
WIND: Increasing and possibly breezy NNE wind in the morning shifting NNW for the afternoon. Stay tuned.
Long Range Surf Outlook: Strong Reinforcements from the WNW (265-290 degrees, with peak energy centered around 280-285 degrees) will rebuild through the afternoon on Saturday and continue Sunday morning before easing over the afternoon on Sunday. This will essentially be from the same storm system that created the Thur/Fri swell, just a secondary fetch that was well aimed at the Peniche region as a complex low developed.
While overall this swell is not as strong as the Thur/Fri swell, it’s a little more ‘west’ in direction, which will help size at Supertubos. We will see another strong round of surf in the overhead to double overhead+ range for Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning.
For Monday the WNW swell will be dropping off as a new NW/NNW swell picks up. The shift in dominant swell direction to the NW/NNW is not great for Supertubos so overall we are expecting a dropping trend in size. We still expect to see very contestable waves in the head high to slightly overhead range on Monday morning (and maybe even a little better), but look for smaller surf through the afternoon. This swell mix will fade to small leftovers by Tuesday.
We’ll continue to monitor a small to modest pulse of WNW groundswell for the last couple days of the waiting period. This will be from current West Atlantic Hurricane Gonzalo, which is forecast to transition into an extratropical storm over the weekend as it tracks back to the northeast/east-northeast. We’re not overly impressed with this developing storm/swell on the forecast charts at this time, but it could provide lully, but contestable, waves; very slowly building Tuesday afternoon, peaking Wednesday and then easing Thursday. Size for Wednesday would be in the chest-shoulder high+ range, and even a little better, if Gonzalo behaves as forecast in the next couple days. Stay tuned.
Wind/Weather: Onshore S/SSE wind will continue on Saturday, but will be down a couple notches from Thur/Fri. While surf quality is still generally low with the onshore to side/onshore wind, we should see at least a little improvement over the last couple days.
More favorable conditions look likely to prevail on Sunday and for much of the new week as a cut off low develops to the west-southwest of Portugal and high pressure gradually slides over the region. We expect to see light SE/ESE wind on Sunday morning trend toward light/variable in the afternoon (or a weak sea breeze). Monday and Tuesday will likely see offshore ENE to NE wind with sunny skies and warm weather.
Northerly wind is currently forecast to briefly flare up on Wednesday; more NNE in the morning and shifting NNW in the afternoon. Lighter ENE wind returns Thursday as weather remains very pleasant/warm both days. Stay tuned, we will continue to refine this forecast over the next couple days.