Promising forecast for Mormaii Pe’ahi World Cup Tow-In
Mormaii Pe’ahi World Cup Tow-In Surfing Champs
Association of Pro Towsurfers
Pe'ahi (Jaws) Maui Hawaii
8 January 2009 - March 31, 2009
Surfline's Sean Collins gives latest forecast for Mormaii Pe’ahi World Cup Tow-In
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 9 January, 2009 : - - This storm is just beginning to come together off Japan and a few preliminary things look very good, which support the storm intensity of what the long range models are expecting. There is a tremendous amount of tropical moisture being pulled up into this system from the Philippines, which virtually guarantees an extra-tropical storm with very intense wind speeds. Once again, this storm will develop over the next couple of days and as it does we'll have a more accurate idea of the winds and swell.
The actual wind speeds in the storm should peak over the weekend. As the storm shifts north early next week it will develop into a huge complex low pressure system above Hawaii with multiple centers. Another strong low center connected to this storm system will swing through the southwest quadrant throughout the middle of next week, and will develop another very solid swell. So we will actually have two peaks of swell for Peahi for Thursday and again on Friday of next week. Remember though, as of this moment the storm and swell still actually haven't happened as yet so this may change.
Other issues... Currently both progs from the GFS and NOGAPS models look good with 35-45 knots of wind in this storm aimed at Hawaii, but my sense after studying the charts is that all of the WWIII models are running a little hot on the swell sizes for the comparative estimated wind speeds, and also due to the over lapping swells contributing to the increased estimate of swell heights in the wave models.
So if everyone is looking at the swell models over the next few days I would encourage everyone to be a little cautious as there are some internal issues with how all the swell models are calculating this particular swell, and at the moment the models are surely running a little too hot.
On the good side, I think both the GFS and NOGAPS wind models that drive the swell models are under estimating the potential wind speeds that will develop in this storm on Saturday and Sunday.
I feel that the winds in this storm are likely to be stronger in the 45-55 knot+ range over the weekend. As a result, the swell models are likely to continue to run hotter again for the swell heights as they are now, once they pick up these higher wind speeds in the storm.
We'll likely see some increased hotness in the models by Sunday and Monday, and at least our LOLA model should settle down a bit by late Monday once we add measured swell data from the satellites to assimilate a more accurate swell model forecast.
OK, now that we're through all that stuff above to avoid a zillion phone calls over weekend about what the models are doing, the overall swell forecast is still looking very, very good. Weatherwise, most of the storm activity should stay to the north of Maui, but the lows are very close so there will likely be unstable weather and some scattered showers from time to time.
Keeping in mind the storm still hasn't happened yet, this is what we should expect with our current information. If the winds in the storm are stronger, the swell periods will be longer and the swell will arrive a little earlier. If the winds are less, the swell period will be lower and the swell will arrive a little later. All of the below is for Peahi. Oahu's North shore will be about 3-5 hours earlier.
Wednesday, January 14th: First signs of new NW-300 (18-20") swell by mid afternoon. By late afternoon and evening Peahi should be building solid in the 12-15+18 foot range Hawaiian (15-30 foot+ faces). Southwest winds 8-12 knots with possible scattered showers.
Thursday, January 15th: Building solid NW-300 degree swell (16-20") with 18-20 foot surf Hawaiian and larger 22 foot+ sets (20-45 foot+++ faces). Likely peaking in the morning through midday and holding solid through the afternoon. Increased SW winds 15-22 knots and likely scattered showers. In the afternoon the rights could be a little bumpy and the lefts cleaner.
Friday , January 16th: Old swell dropping to 12-15 foot+. NEW NW-300 (15-18") filling in throughout the morning and peaking by midday with 15-20 foot+ surf and possible larger sets. (This swell could be larger or smaller depending on how this storm develops over the next 5 days so it's still very risky to call). West-WSW 15-20 knot winds and possible scattered showers. Could be very bumpy on the rights, and semi cleaner on the lefts. Wind could be a problem on this day.
Saturday and beyond will be slowly dropping at this point.
Once again this is a very preliminary outlook, but as much detail as I can give at this time with the information that we have. I think there is no question that some things may change a little as the storms actually happen, but hopefully this will give everyone a good idea of what to expect and can be used for planning and preparation. At the very least we are guaranteed a very, very large swell and hopefully conditions will hold up nicely.
We'll keep an eye on everything over the weekend and will have another update on Monday.
APT Confirmed Main List:
Danilo Couto / Rodrigo Resende - BRA
Evarldo Texeira / Yuri Soledad - BRA/HI
Sylvio Mancusi / Haroldo Ambrosio - BRA
Critobal Gonzales / Carlos Nogales – CHI/MEX
Grant Baker / Greg Long - SA/CA
Jamie Mitchell / James Watson - AUS
Scott Chandler / Chuck Patterson - CA
Carlos Burle / Eraldo Gueiros - BRA
Alastair Mennie / Andrew Cotton - IRE
Tyler Fox / Shane Desmond - CA
Makua Rothman / Ikaika Kalama - HI
Mike Parsons / Brad Gerlach - CA
Garrett McNamara / Kealii Mamala - HI
Jamie Sterling / Mark Visser - HI
Sion Milosky / Danny Fuller - HI
Myles Padaka / Felipe Espiritu - HI
Archie Kalepa / Buzzy Kerbox - HI
Peter Mel / Bruce Irons – CA/HI
Ian Walsh / Shane Dorian - HI
Jamie O'Brian / Troy Alotis – HI
Anthony Tashnick / Darryl Virostko - CA
Russell Smith / Tyler Smith - CA
Kaleo Amadeo / Nalu Wallace – HI (Wild Card)
Shaun Lopez / Campbell Farrell – HI (Wild Card)
(in alphabetical order by first partner name)
Dan Moore / Mark Anderson – HI
Doug Young / Sierra Emroy – NZ/HI
Dylan Longbottom / Laurie Towner - AUS
Ed Guzman / Juao Jabour- CA/BRA
Kalani Chapman / Ezira Sitt – HI
Ollie Richardson / Dan Hasselschwert – OR
Ramon Navarro / Christian Merrello - CHI
Titus Kinimaka / Kalani Vierra - HI
Zach Wormhoudt / Jake Wormhoudt – CA
Official Title Sponsor Website: MORMAII.com Special thanks to Mormaii and all their support in making this event a possibility for the competitors and APT. Official APT Event Website: APTWorldTour.com. Official Event Forecast Provided By: Surfline.com
Official Partner and Associate Sponsors: Towsurfer.com, HandsomeBugga Productions, Surfline, Big Vision Studios Inc., Mobile Media Now, Inc., Powerlines Productions and Heavy Water Magazine.
About the Association of Professional Towsurfers, Inc. (APT)
The Association of Professional Towsurfers, was Founded on March 6, 2003 with the charter to support the responsible growth and development of Tow-In Surfing. The Association of Professional Towsurfers, is dedicated to sanctioning and promoting world class competitions, dissemination of safety and technical information to athletes, and technical direction to event organizers. The Association of Professional Towsurfers embraces corporate sponsors and media entities that provide the support necessary to increase its events and goals. The Association of Professional Towsurfers has goals to expand its support throughout the world, lobby government agencies and municipalities to provide more certified tow-in access to ocean venues, and be ever attentive to the unique technical and safety needs of this evolving sport and its constituents.
Mormaii´s company is very proud to celebrate it's 30th Anniversary and becoming the Title Sponsor for the Mormaii Pe'ahi World Cup Tow-In Surfing Championship. Mormaii is the pioneer with thirty years of innovations in the sector, the greatest mix of products and the highest income among the brands in the surf market and water sports in Brazil. It all started with this differentiated wetsuit made especially for surfers. After that, clothing was produced for diving, jet-skiing, triathlon, windsurfing, and many other sports where the athletes adopted the Mormaii neoprene as the official equipment while in the water. Today, Mormaii has a enormous mix of products and exports for more then seventy countries.
# 1 : Mormaii Peahi World Cup Tow-In Championship 08/09
# 2 : Holding period begins for Mormaii Pe’ahi World Tow-Ins
# 3 : Coming soon
# 4 : Coming soon
What's your take on this?
Post your thoughts: SV Forum
New Survey: Map Surfing’s future
Check the latest Hawaii Surf Reports and Forecasts
More Hawaiian & USA Surfing News available here
New! B2B News ASBE-Surf | Receive News-Alerts
APT Global, Founder/President
APT Global Vice President/Event Director
APT Global Media Director
Big Wave - Surfersvillage