TROPICS: Storms active in Atlantic & West Pacific

2012 Hurricane & Cyclone Season

2012 Hurricane Season Links
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 

Tropical Storms Ernesto, Florence, Haikui active in  Atlantic & West Pacific

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 4 August, 2012 : - - The Atlantic hurricane season starts in June, usually the most active part of the season does not begin until at least August. This year is following that pattern. Currently the National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems: Tropical Storm Ernesto, a tropical low off of Florida, and a newly emerged system forming off of Africa.  All three of these storms can be seen in the most recent GOES-13 full hemisphere scan from August 3, 2012 at 1445z. Full disk scans can be seen on the real-time GOES page. 

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Tropical Storm Ernesto will continue to track through the Caribbean into early next week, bringing a round of wind and rain to Jamaica on Sunday before taking a turn toward the Yucatan. Latest aircraft reconnaissance has found Ernesto slightly weaker than previously thought due to it's encounter with an area of dry air. The system will maintain tropical storm strength through tonight before encountering more favorable atmospheric conditions on Sunday.

Ernesto may then strengthen into a hurricane on Sunday night or Monday as the center of circulation passes to the south and southeast of Jamaica. In terms of impacts for Jamaica, rain will develop over western parts after midnight tonight and spread over the remainder of the island by Sunday morning.

Rough surf will also develop throughout area beaches and a minor storm surge will occur on southern and eastern facing shores. Improving conditions over Jamaica are expected by Monday night as Ernesto tracks west-northward toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Florence has formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. It poses no threat to land anytime soon. Soon after Tropical Storm Ernesto formed in the Atlantic Basin, another strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. That wave then developed a well-defined center of circulation and was classified as Tropical Depression Six late Friday night.

By Saturday morning, satellite intensity estimates show that sustained winds have ramped up to tropical storm force and we now have Tropical Storm Florence in the Atlantic. The storm is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and it will continue chugging westward through the open waters of the central Atlantic the next few days.

Bahamas Sysem

Convection really flared yesterday with the tropical wave in the Bahamas. It diminished last night but came back some this morning, and radar and visible satellite loops show that a center of spin in the lower and middle part of the atmosphere has tightened up just offshore of Vero Beach, with observations showing a closed circulation trying to form as well.

Updated forecast for Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity - by Dr Wm Gray

We anticipate a slightly-below average remainder of the hurricane season this year due to an anticipated weak El Niño event and a tropical Atlantic that is less favorable than in the past two years. This forecast is a slight increase from activity predicted in early June, due to a slower-than-anticipated onset of El Niño and a somewhat more favorable tropical Atlantic than observed earlier this year. We expect a slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. (as of 3 August 2012)

Read the full report by Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray

Western Pacific

Yet another tropical cyclone is headed for China. Tropical Storm Haikui is beginning to affect Okinawa, and after the center passes by there, probably just to the north, the storm is going to be yet another in the series to hit China, likely strengthening into a typhoon before it gets there.

Eastern Pacific

The is no imminent tropical cyclone development.


Hurricanes, Cyclones Typhoons:

2012 Hurricane Season Links
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)

NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA) 
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Source: NOAA / JTWC

Compiled by: SV Editors

Tags: Cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons,  

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