Tropics: Rafael, Paul, Prapiroon, Anais

2012 Hurricane & Cyclone Season

2012 Hurricane Season Links
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 

Tropical Active Ssytems: Rafael, Paul, Prapiroon, Anais

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 15 October, 2012 : - - Strengthening Tropical Storm Rafael is expected take aim at Bermuda this week and is forcast to pass close to the island nation late Tuesday. Experts are concerned that since Rafael is a large system that it will come close enough to Bermuda to unleash potentially flooding rain, strong winds and pounding surf Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Stength of winds in Bermuda will depend on Rafael's intensity and proximity to the islands. Rafael is currently a strong tropical storm and should become a Category 1 hurricane before threatening Bermuda. The future hurricane is forecast to pass just east of Bermuda.

Rafael's move to the north over the next few days should pump in some ground swell for mid-Atlantic surfers. Forecasters are predicting swells of 4 to 7 feet by Tuesday, increasing to 6 to 8 Wednesday before backing off. The forecast for Virginia to Maryland is 6 to 7 through Thursday. More consistent action of 6 to 8 feet from Tuesday morning to Friday is expected to take place along New Jersey beaches.

EASTERN PACIFIC

Hurricane Paul is headed on a track which will bring the center close to or over Baja California in Mexico. Its intensity is expected to decrease in the process, but the forecast track and strength have warranted the issuance of tropical storm warnings for a portion of the coast.  Some of Paul's mid-upper level moisture will get picked up and carried across south Texas and contribute to rainfall there.

WESTERN PACIFIC

Latest model runs continue to indicate a track in which Typhoon Prapiroon just grazes Japan with the brunt of the wind and rain staying offshore. To the east of Prapiroon is smaller/weaker Tropical Storm Maria, whose center is about to track just west of Iwo To and then stay well east of the main islands of Japan.

Some mid-upper level moisture from these two cyclones continues to get picked up by winds aloft and carried all the way to the Pacific Northwest of the United States and contribute to rainfall that is ending the dry pattern there.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Anais has been the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the southwest Indian Ocean so early in the season. It is expected to become much weaker as it heads closer to Madagascar.

Hurricanes, Cyclones Typhoons:

2012 Hurricane Season Links
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)

NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA) 
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Source: NOAA / JTWC

Compiled by: SV Editors

Tags: Cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons,  

Environment: Surfersvillage