Sandy an unprecented force, Waves 50+ forecast

2012 Hurricane & Cyclone Season

2012 Hurricane Season Links
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 

Hurricane Sandy an unprecented force, Waves 50+ forecast  |  Latest NHC Updates

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 29 October, 2012 : - - History is being written as an extreme weather event continues to unfold, one which will occupy a place in the annals of weather history as one of the most extraordinary to have affected the United States. Sandy has severely impacted Caribbean Islands and the Bahamas, and severe erosion to beaches in. It is now poised to strike the northeast United States with a combination of track, size, structure and strength that is unprecedented in the known historical records.

Already there have been ominous signs from its outer fringes: trees down in eastern North Carolina on Saturday, and coastal flooding in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia Saturday and Sunday, these impacts occurring despite the center of circulation being so far offshore, an indication of Sandy's exceptional size and potency.

Sustained tropical storm force winds were already measured at a buoy just offshore of New York City Sunday evening, 24 hours before the closest approach of the center. Early Monday morning, aircraft reconnaissance found a central pressure of 946 millibars, one of the lowest on record for a hurricane near that location, and maximum sustained winds which have increased to 85 mph.

Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis (tropical waves) : Click image to enlarge

A meteorologically mind-boggling combination of ingredients is coming together: one of the largest expanses of tropical storm force winds on record with a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the Atlantic or for that matter anywhere else in the world; a track of the center making a sharp left turn in direction of movement toward New Jersey in a way that is unprecedented in the historical database, as it gets blocked from moving out to sea by a pattern that includes an exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure aloft near Greenland; a "warm-core" tropical cyclone embedded within a larger, nor'easter-like circulation; and moisture from the tropics and cold air from the Arctic combining to produce very heavy snow in interior high elevations. This is an extraordinary situation.

That gigantic size is a crucially important aspect of this storm. The massive breadth of its strong winds will produce a much wider scope of impacts than if it were a tiny system, and some of them will extend very far inland. This storm's size, threat, and expected impacts are immense.

Those continue to be: very powerful, gusty winds with widespread tree damage and an extreme amount and duration of power outages; major coastal flooding from storm surge along with large battering waves on top of that and severe beach erosion; flooding from heavy rainfall; and heavy snow accumulations in the central Appalachians where a blizzard warning has been issued for some locations due to the combination of snow and wind. With strong winds blowing across the Great Lakes and pushing the water onshore, there are even lakeshore flood warnings in effect as far west as Chicago.

Satellite Imagery 

Storm-Centered Infrared(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Water Vapor(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Visible(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Water Visible (Colorized) (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Infrared(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Water Vapor(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Visible(GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Visible (Colorized) (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)

Satellite Animations

Storm-Centered Infrared (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement) (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Water Vapor (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Visible (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Storm-Centered Visible (Colorized) (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Infrared (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement) (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Water Vapor (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Visible (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)
Eastern U.S./West Atlantic Visible (Colorized) (GOES 13; NOAA/SSD)

Sandy is so large that there is even a tropical storm warning in effect in Bermuda, and the Bermuda Weather Service is forecasting wave heights outside the reef as high as 25'.

There is a serious danger to mariners from a humongous area of high seas which in some areas will include waves of colossal height. Wave forecast models are predicting significant wave heights up to 50+ feet, and that is the average of the top 1/3, meaning that there will be individual waves that are even higher. A buoy between North Carolina and Bermuda measured significant wave heights of ~40' Sunday evening.

The Perfect Storm, originally known as the Halloween Storm because of the time of year when it occurred, peaking in 1991 on the same dates (October 28-30) as Sandy, became a part of popular culture because of the tragedy at sea. This one has some of the same meteorological characteristics and ingredients coming together, but in an even more extreme way, and slamming more directly onshore and then much farther inland and thus having a far greater scope and variety of impacts.

EASTERN PACIFIC

Invest 98E is being slow to organize but has a chance to develop into a tropical cyclone this week. Models have it lurking close to the coast of Mexico rather than accelerating out to sea.

WESTERN PACIFIC

On the other side of the world, after bringing to the Philippines its own share of severe impacts, Typhoon Son-tinh is headed into northern Vietnam and then the nearby part of China.

BAY OF BENGAL

Invest 93W is organizing near Sri Lanka and could become a tropical storm as it heads toward the southeast part of India.

Hurricanes, Cyclones Typhoons:

2012 Hurricane Season Links
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)

NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA) 
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Source: NOAA / JTWC

Compiled by: SV Editors

Tags: Cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons,  

Environment: Surfersvillage