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Hurricaane Paul

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Hurricane Paul weakens

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 24 October, 2006 : - - Shearing winds have begun to weaken Hurricane Paul south of Cabo San Lucas. A strong trough of lower pressure to the west of Paul is the reason behind the shearing winds. This trough should move slowly toward the hurricane continuing the weakening trend through Tuesday.

Paul made its turn to the north Monday. By Tuesday afternoon it should be moving off to the northeast and could reach the Mexican coast Wednesday. Hurricane watches have been posted on the southern portion of Baja California in case Paul moves over that area.

The Atlantic basin is quiet with no tropical storm formation expected through Tuesday.

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And in the SW Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 24/0758 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 13.7 South 169.6 East at 240600 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots, increasing to 100 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Organisation good with cold onvective tops persisting. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on W eye embedded in CMG surround gives a DT=5.5, MET=6.0, PT=6.0, thus T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south in the next 24 hours under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 24 to 36 hours before weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.4S 170.1E mov SE 05kt with 95kt close to centre.  24hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 15.5S 170.1E mov S 05kt with 100kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 16.3S 169.7E mov SSW 05kt with 95kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 16.9S 168.9E mov SW 05kt with 85kt close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 241400 UTC. 

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