![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/143014W_sm.gif)
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Tropical Storm Gustav remains close to Haiti
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 27 August, 2008 : - - Tropical Storm Gustav continues to interact with the southwest coast of Hati. As a result of this interaction Gustav is a 60 mph tropical storm. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas. There is a hurricane warning for Cuba in the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago De Cuba and Granma. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Caymans, Jamaica and the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas and Holguin.
At 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday, Gustav was located near the northern coast of the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, about 140 miles west of Port Au Prince or near 18.8 north, 74.4 west. Gustav continues to move to the west at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, with some higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 997 mb, or 29.44 inches. Gustav has moved very little over the last 8-10 hours and continues to bring significant rainfall to to mostly Hati. The storm will continue to bring heavy rain to much of Haiti the rest of this afternoon and tonight, with more rain spreading into eastern Cuba eventually to Jamaica late today and tonight. Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches more is likely with local amounts of 20 plus inches, especially at the higher terrain. This will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
North Atlantic infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge
North Atlantic: Tropical Cyclone Advisories & Bulletins | Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Weather Discussion | Tropical Cyclone Bulletins | National Warnings Area
Although Gustav has weakened, the storm will slowly move west and back over water later this afternoon and tonight. The water is very warm and atmospheric conditions will also be very favorable for intensification during this time as it passes north of Jamaica late tonight and Thursday, probably becoming a Category 2 hurricane midday on Thursday. Similar rainfall to that which will douse Haiti and easternmost Cuba today will spread across Jamaica and central Cuba tonight and Thursday. In addition, a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet above normal is possible. Gustav will then continue on a mostly westerly course south of Cuba and very near the Cayman Islands on Friday then toward the Yucatan Channel on Saturday. There is a possibility that Gustav could become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane sometime on Friday or Saturday as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. All interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico need to watch the progress of this storm for early next week, especially the central and western Gulf Coast areas.
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![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://dadecosurf.com/images/tanal.1.gif)
Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis (tropical waves) : Click image to enlarge
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave along 77 west, south of 14 north, is close to Gustav with no significant showers. A tropical wave along 44 west, south of 16 north, is moving west at 15-20 knots. The last area of disturbed weather has some strong showers and thunderstorms with a broad low pressure area along 30 west, south of 20 north. Both the system east of the Leeward Islands and the one near the Cape Verde Islands have the potential to get better organized over the next few days.
Current global sea temperatures and tropical cyclone activity
Tropical Depression 14W | Click for Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Western Pacific: Tropical Depression 14W
As of late Wednesday afternoon, EDT, Tropical Depression 14W was located near 19.7 north, 122.3 east, or about 345 miles north-northeast of Manila, Philippines. The system is moving toward the north at 11 mph and maximum-sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
After becoming a tropical storm on Tuesday, the storm weakened to a depression earlier Wednesday, owing both to wind shear and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Luzon, Philippines. Wind shear will continue to impact 14W over the next couple of days, so little to no strengthening is expected. The low-level circulation is becoming separated from the storm's deep convection, so the storm could even weaken and perhaps even dissipate altogether.
West Pacific infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge
Western Pacific: Tropical Weather Discussion | Alternate | Joint Typhoon Warning Center
The storm will continue to move in a general northwesterly direction through Friday. The primary threat to far northern Luzon and the Babuyan and Batan islands in the Luzon Strait, will be heavy rainfall. Earlier this month, Typhoon Nuri and Tropical Storm Kammura produced flooding in these same areas.
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