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Tropical Storm Gustav Batters Jamaica and Tropical Storm Hanna develops
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 28 August, 2008 : - - A hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica. A tropical storm warning remains out for the province of Granma, Cuba. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 2:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Gustav was located about 40 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 335 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman, or near 17.9 north, 76.2 west. Gustav is moving slowly to the west at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were holding near 70 mph, just shy of hurricane force. The estimated central pressure is 983 mb, or 29.03 inches. Gustav is bringing excessive rainfall to much of Jamaica with the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are likely with local amounts of 20-plus inches, especially over the higher terrain.
This morning, convection has become more centered near the center of Gustav. Also, the wind shear has begun to lessen somewhat. Both factors have allowed for Gustav to strengthen. Even so Gustav remains a compact storm with tropical storm for winds extending outward from the center by only 60 mile. Gustav could become a hurricane this afternoon and develop a larger circulation with time.
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A mid- to upper-level ridge of high pressure north of Gustav extending over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico will guide the storm westward later today and then to the northwest tomorrow and into Labor Day weekend. Gustav should ride westward along the southern coast of Jamaica and then make a direct hit onto Grand Cayman Island as a Category 1, or possibly a Category 2, hurricane Friday morning in a sea of very warm waters. Further strengthening of Gustav is anticipated as it moves either across western Cuba or through the Yucatan Channel and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Gustav may reach Category 3 status before reaching the Gulf of Mexico and for a time in the Gulf could be as high as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Due to this potential, all interests along the Gulf of Mexico from Brownsville to the Florida Keys as the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and Grand Cayman should monitor the progress of this potentially life-threatening situation.
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![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808W5_sm2+gif/144212W_sm.gif)
Click image to enlarge :: Latest Tropical Weather Outlook courtesy of NHC
Tropical Depression 8 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Hanna with sustained winds of 40 mph. This system is in environment of warm waters and a low-shear environment. Hanna will move in a northwesterly direction during the next few days with gradual intensification. Hanna is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. The storm is currently at 20.5 north and 59.2 west or about 305 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. This track will keep the system away from the major island in the Caribbean and the Bahamas in the short term but may become more of a concern for the Bahamas and interests along and off the Atlantic coast late in the weekend and next week as it begins to take a more westerly track. The central pressure is currently 29.59 inches.
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![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://dadecosurf.com/images/tanal.1.gif)
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Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we are watching several other systems. One feature is near 95 west in the southern part of the Bay of Campeche. While this system is close to land rapid organization, this morning could lead to quick development of a tropical depression or storm before landfall in the next 24 hours. There is another feature along 40 west. This wave has some organization aloft, but no significant surface development. If surface activity can consolidate underneath this large, upper-level feature, we could see a well-developed system by early next week. Finally, a strong disturbance has moved off Africa and is near 20 west. This system and the others will be watched for tropical development.
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Tropical Depression 14W | Click for Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Western Pacific: Tropical Depression 14W
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 28 August, 2008 : - - As of Thursday morning, EDT, Tropical Depression 14W was centered near 20.5 north and 121.5 east. Winds were sustained at about 30 mph and movement was to the north-northwest. Wind shear will continue to have a negative effect on the storm, causing it to weaken further over the next 24 hours as it drifts over the Luzon Strait.
The storm is forecast to dissipate over the Luzon Strait by late Thursday.
Meanwhile, an area of thunderstorms several hundred miles northeast of Guam bears watching for development over the next couple of days.
West Pacific infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge
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