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Click image to enlarge :: Latest Tropical Weather Outlook courtesy of NHC
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Hurricane Gustav Strengthening, Tropical Storm Hanna Maintains
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 29 August, 2008 : - - The center of Gustav is currently in the open waters west of Jamaica and has regained hurricane strength. Gustav will buffet the Cayman Islands tonight as it continues to gain strength. Gustav is then expected to move near western portions of Cuba Saturday or Saturday night.
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, the provinces of Isla De Juventud, Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, and Ciudad De La Habana. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego De Avila and Camaguey.
At 5:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Hurricane Gustav was located about 100 miles east of Grand Cayman or near 19.2 north, 79.7 west. Gustav is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 mph. The estimated central pressure is 980 mb, or 28.94 inches. Gustav is gaining strength as is evident from satellite imagery. The system is beginning to really wrap up with moisture feeding into the storm. Gustav will continue to grow in size overnight as it progresses over warm waters.
There is strong circulation at the surface and aloft that is curling thunderstorms as far as extreme southern Florida around it. Gustav brought excessive rainfall to much of Jamaica with flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches fell, with local amounts of 20-plus inches, especially on the higher terrain. Similar life-threatening conditions are expected on the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Saturday.
Weather conditions over Jamaica will slowly improve as Gustav slides to the west-northwest. As Gustav passes over warmer water, it could intensify rapidly to a Category 2 and perhaps a Category 3 hurricane late tonight or Saturday. Gustav will pass near the Cayman Islands tonight, then over or just west of far western Cuba, causing windswept, flooding rain over those two relatively flat land masses. Gustav will move into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday as a Category 3 hurricane and could become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane later Sunday and Sunday night.
Where Gustav moves beyond Sunday is still uncertain. A large high pressure area to the north guiding Gustav over the next few days will change shape and weaken on its western side, allowing Gustav to track more northwestward Sunday night and Monday. However, another very strong high pressure area building into the eastern United States will expand southward, and this could slow or even block the northward motion of Gustav later Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. All interests along the Gulf Coast, especially from the upper coast of Texas to the western Florida Panhandle, should continue to closely monitor the progress of Gustav.
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![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808W5_sm2+gif/144212W_sm.gif)
Click image to enlarge :: Latest Tropical Weather Outlook courtesy of NHC
At 5:00 p.m. EDT today, Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 21.8 north and 63.8 west, or 280 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hanna is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds estimated at near 50 mph. The estimated pressure in Hanna is 1000 millibars, or 29.53 inches. Hanna is experiencing strong, westerly shear and will probably not intensify much during the next 24 hours.
Hanna will not be a direct threat to land in the near future. However, moisture flowing into the storm will pass over the Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday, and this could bring parts of those islands gusty winds and 1-3 inches of rain. Hanna will move west-northwest to northwestward and stay east of the Bahamas this weekend. However, a change in the path, more to the west may occur early next week.
An impressive area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche Thursday has all but fallen apart this morning. The moisture from this area of convection will enhance rain and thunderstorm development over northeastern Mexico and South Texas tonight.
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![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://dadecosurf.com/images/tanal.1.gif)
Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis (tropical waves) : Click image to enlarge
A tropical wave just off of the African coast, near 21 west, is being investigated for development. This feature appears well organized on satellite photos and may already be a tropical depression or storm. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Ike. The system will move into more favorable conditions for development over the next 24-48 hours. There is a 1009 mb low present with this wave with broad cyclonic turning being seen on satellite. We will continue to watch this wave for further development over the weekend. Another tropical wave along 40 west is being monitored for possible development within the next few days.
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