Three Atlantic storms promise big approaching swells

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 3 September, 2008 : - - As of 10:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hanna was still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. Hanna is located near 20.5 north and 72.4 west. This is just southeast of Great Inagua Island, or 435 miles southeast of Nassau. Hanna has been nearly stationary over the past few hours and a slow, erratic motion should continue into tonight. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 988 mb, or 29.18 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Meanwhile, the government of the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm warning for the northern coast from Puerto Plata west to Bahia De Manzanillo. Also, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of Haiti from Port Au Prince eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Interests in eastern Cuba, the northern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Hanna.

Hanna is experiencing strong northerly shear, but this shear should diminish into Wednesday, and Hanna could become a hurricane once more later Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical storm-force winds will affect the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas, tonight. Rainfall from Hanna will also affect the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Rainfall in these areas will average 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Wednesday. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 2-4 feet above normal water levels. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast through Friday.

While the exact future path of Hanna is somewhat uncertain, the storm is likely to move northward beginning Wednesday, spreading its effects over the northern Bahamas Wednesday and over parts of Florida and the Southeast starting Thursday. Hanna should track very close to the Florida coast Thursday and Thursday night, then make landfall somewhere along the northern Florida, Georgia or Carolina coast sometime Friday. All interests from Florida to the mid-Atlantic coast need to keep a close watch on the future progress of Hanna.

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm Ike is near 19.9 north and 47.9 west, or about 930 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Further strengthening is expected with this system overnight, and Ike could become a hurricane by Wednesday. Ike is moving west-northwest at 17 mph, and a general west to west-northwest movement is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with gusts to 75 mph. The estimated central pressure is 996 mb, or 29.41 inches. Computer forecast information keeps Ike away from land through Thursday. After that, the system is expected to pass close to or even over the Leeward Islands Friday, then near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday.

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to track westward in the far eastern Atlantic. Josephine is moving to the west at 12 mph and rainfall will continue to diminish overnight across the Southern Cape Verde islands as the storm moves away. Josephine will likely remain a tropical storm through Wednesday, but may strengthen further into a hurricane towards the end of this week.

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Another tropical wave is along 62 west, south of 19 north moving west around 20 mph. This wave has caused some showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean, but no organized tropical development is expected over the next couple of days.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis (tropical waves) : Click image to enlarge

After making landfall in Louisiana as a dangerous hurricane on Monday, Gustav has weakened to a tropical rainstorm with winds of 20 mph. Tropical Rainstorm Gustav is centered about 80 miles north of Shreveport, La as of 10:00 p.m. CDT Tuesday. Gustav is moving north-northwestward at 5 mph. The central pressure is 995 mb, or 29.38 inches.

Gustav will continue to weaken as it moves northward to northwestward tonight across northwestern Louisiana into northeastern Texas. Isolated tornadoes will still develop to the north and east of the track of Gustav through midweek, primarily during the afternoon hours. Gustav will become nearly stationary on Wednesday, before the storm gets absorbed by a frontal system later this week. Before the storm moves away later this week, major flooding will be a threat from Missouri to Louisiana, especially through Wednesday.

Satellite Imagery

Karina Weakens

As of 8 p.m. PDT, Karina has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is now around 280 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Karina had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts. Karina is expected to continue to weaken as she encounters cooler waters over the next couple of days. The shear will diminish some, but it should not be enough to allow Karina to strengthen.

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

There are no other waves of interest that have the potential to develop at this time in the eastern Pacific.

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