Atlantic Hurricane & Pacific Cyclone Outlook

2008 Hurricane Season Links

Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (Surforecasts)

Tropical Storm Kyle becomes a Hurricane

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 27 September, 2008 : - - As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Kyle was near 34.3 north, 69.7 west, or 315 miles west-northwest of Bermuda and has reached hurricane strength. Maximum-sustained winds were near 75 mph with tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 205 miles to the east and northeast of the storm's center. The minimum central pressure was 995 millibars, or 29.38 inches. Kyle is moving north at 23 mph and should continue moving on this general course through tonight with in increase in forward speed. Later tonight, a turn to the north-northeast is anticipated, followed by more of a northeasterly path Sunday and Sunday night.

Areas along coastal Maine are now under a tropical storm warning from Port Clyde eastward to Eastport. A hurricane watch is in effect from Stonington to Eastport, Maine, while a tropical storm watch is in effect from south of Port Clyde to Cape Elizabeth, Maine, including the Portland area. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remain in effect for southwestern Nova Scotia. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the remainder of Nova Scotia and for southwestern New Brunswick.

Although Kyle has strengthened into a hurricane this afternoon, the storm will reach much colder water late tonight, halting the intensifying process. By then, Kyle will be moving between 25 and 30 mph and should maintain its intensity until landfall on Sunday evening.  

North Atlantic infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge

Bermuda has been buffeted by a few rain squalls and wind gusts to tropical storm force. Large, dangerous surf and overwash will affect Bermuda through into tonight. The storm will then pass east of Cape Cod, Mass., Sunday afternoon. Strong winds gusting to near tropical storm force will affect coastal sections of eastern New England with rough surf Sunday. However, the main threat in central and eastern New England will be that of flooding from heavy rainfall with interaction with a tropical warm front nearby.

Kyle is projected to make landfall as a hurricane over Nova Scotia, or perhaps near the Maine border late Sunday night. Conditions in Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick will deteriorate during the day Sunday. As Kyle transitions from a tropical system to a non-tropical system it will continue to retain heavy rain and potentially damaging winds as it cruises through Newfoundland and Atlantic Canada waters Monday.

Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis (tropical waves) : Click image to enlarge

Elsewhere, we continue to monitor a couple additional areas in the Atlantic Basin. One is a system about halfway between the Leeward Islands and Africa. Another is near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The system near Yucatan may never become a powerful system, but has the potential to drop very heavy rain this coming week as it drifts to the northeast toward Florida. The system has caused flooding already in Mexico. The system in the middle of the Atlantic has potential to strengthen as it moves westward into a more favorable atmosphere next week.

Current global sea temperatures and tropical cyclone activity

Click to enlarge : Image courtesy Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Super Typhoon Jangmi Headed for Taiwan

As of Saturday morning, EDT, Jangmi had become a super typhoon and is on a collision course with Taiwan. The storm is centered near 21.6 north, 124.0 east or about 315 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, with motion toward the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum-sustained winds have reached 155 mph with gusts to 190 mph, making Jangmi a destructive Category 5 storm, as a super typhoon. While ocean water temperatures are slightly lower in the waters close to Taiwan, Jangmi is expected to make landfall on Sunday over the southern half of the island as a major typhoon with sustained winds above 130 mph.

Extreme northern Luzon, the Babuyan and Batan islands, and southern Ryukyu Islands will have some rain and wind from the storm, but the most devastating impacts will come across Taiwan. Jangmi will produce severe winds, a large storm surge and torrential rainfall. Taiwan has already been battered by several tropical systems in the past few months.

After landfall, Jangmi will weaken significantly due to the rugged terrain of Taiwan. Extreme rainfall totals of 2 to 3 feet are likely in the nation's mountains. The storm will emerge west of Taiwan before nearing the west coast of China, close to the Fujian Province, China. It is uncertain at this point whether Jangmi will recurve before making landfall in China, or continue to plow into the mainland before doing so.

West Pacific infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge

Western Pacific: Tropical Weather Discussion | Alternate  |  Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Elsewhere, another low pressure area continues to spin over the South China Sea, and has a moderate chance at developing tropically over the next 24 hours. The storm's motion is slow and erratic, and it will likely remain over open water for the next few days. The storm may also struggle to strengthen due to interactions with Jangmi.

Finally, a tropical wave south of Guam is not likely to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, although upper-level conditions and water temperatures will become increasingly favorable for development later this weekend. Several computer models suggest that this system could become a tropical storm down the road.

Satellite Imagery

• Storm-Centered Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Water Vapor(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Visible(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Water Visible (Colorized)(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)

• Philippines Infrared(MTSAT; NPMOC/JTWC)
• Philippines Water Vapor(MTSAT; NPMOC/JTWC)
• Philippines Visible(MTSAT; NPMOC/JTWC)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Enhanced Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Water Vapor(MTSAT; NOAA)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Visible(MTSAT; NOAA)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Infrared(MTSAT; NPMOC/JTWC)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Water Vapor(MTSAT; NPMOC/JTWC)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Visible(MTSAT; NPMOC/JTWC)

Satellite Animations

• Storm-Centered Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Water Vapor(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Visible(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
• Storm-Centered Visible (Colorized)(MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)

• West Pacific/South China Sea Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Enhanced Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA)
• West Pacific/South China Sea Water Vapor(MTSAT; NOAA)
• Tropical West Pacific Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA)
• Tropical West Pacific Enhanced Infrared(MTSAT; NOAA)
• Tropical West Pacific Water Vapor(MTSAT; NOAA)
• Tropical West Pacific Visible(MTSAT; NOAA)

Hurricane links:

NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA) 
West Pacific Typhoon Tracking (HZN)

Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (SURForecasts)

Survey: Map Surfing’s future 

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