2009 Hurricane Season

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Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
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Tropical Storms Ana, Bill and Claudette in Atlantic, Hurricane Guillermo in Pacific

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 16 August, 2009 : - - An area of low pressure off of Florida's West Coast that became Tropical Depression Four early this morning has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette. As of 11 a.m. Sunday morning, Claudette was located about 75 miles south-southeast of Apalachicola, Florida. The system is forecast to make landfall late this afternoon or this evening.

Tropical storm warnings extend from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the Suwannee River, Florida. This means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in this area within the next 24 hours.

Gusty winds and heavy rain, which may trigger some flash flooding, are the main threats. Three to five inches are possible in the Florida Panhandle and adjacent portions of southern Alabama. Locally heavier amounts are possible especially along and just east of where the center of circulation tracks.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two tropical storms: Ana and Bill

Tropical Storm Ana : image courtesy NOAA click to enlarge

Tropical Storm Bill : image courtesy NOAA click to enlarge

Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis (tropical waves) : Click image to enlarge

Tropical Storm Ana (40 mile per hour winds) and is located 430 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Ana is struggling in a dry environment at this time as it races westward. The forecast is for Ana to slightly strengthen as it heads toward the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and then toward Hispaniola.

In the short term, expect increased rain and some gusty winds over portions of the northeast Caribbean Islands through Monday. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the rest of the northern Leeward Islands. This means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 36 hours.

The intensity farther out in time will be dictated by the interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Cuba. Regardless, these areas need to monitor the progress of Tropical Storms Ana closely.

Tropical Storm Bill became the 2nd named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on Saturday, forming in the Eastern Atlantic east of Tropical Storm Ana. Bill is currently located about 1555 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and has top sustained winds near 60 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm Bill is forecast to move west-northwest through the open tropical Atlantic over the next few days while steadily gaining strength. If fact, Bill may be a major hurricane (category three or higher) by midweek.  

The current forecast track calls for Bill to miss the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the north. However, these areas should still monitor this systems progress over the next several days due to the uncertainty in forecasts farther out in time.

EASTERN PACIFIC

Hurricane Guillermo rapidly strengthened overnight Friday night into early Saturday and became a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph near the center of circulation. Guillermo has now weakened some back to a Category 2 with 100 mph top winds. It is located 1065 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, while continuing to move west-northwest.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable over the next couple of days, and therefore it should soon begin a weakening trend.

Hurricane Guillermo : image courtesy NOAA click to enlarge

Western Pacific

Tropical Storm Maka Continues to Strengthen

As of Sunday morning, EDT, Tropical Storm Maka was located near 16.5 north, 174.1 east, or about 500 miles east-southeast of Wake Island. Motion is toward the northeast at 9 mph; maximum-sustained winds are near 50 mph with gusts to 60 mph. The system is expected to continue strengthening gradually over the next couple of days while taking a turn more toward the north and then northwest. Maka could become a typhoon on Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Maka click image to enlarge

Western Pacific: Tropical Weather Discussion | Alternate  |  Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Forecasters are also watching an area of showers and thunderstorms currently near 11 north and 161 east that is beginning to become better organized with a well defined low-level circulation. This disturbance is in an area that is favorable for tropical development with warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear, so there is a good chance for tropical formation in the next 24 to 48 hours. Maximum-sustained winds are estimated at 20 mph, so the system will need to pick up a little more strength before it becomes a tropical depression.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected over at least the next 24 hours.  

Hurricane links:

2009 Hurricane Season Links
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (Surforecasts)

NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA) 
West Pacific Typhoon Tracking (HZN)

Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (SURForecasts)

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