Current sea temperatures & cyclone activity - click image for latest positions
2009 Hurricane/Cyclone Season
2009 Hurricane Season Links
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (Surforecasts)
Active storms: Parma, Melor and Olaf
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 2 October, 2009 : - - Typhoon Parma (19W) has weakened a bit but still poses a threat to the Philippines as it churns across the southern Philippine Sea. Typhoon Melor (20W) continues to strengthen and will approach the Mariana Islands in the near future.
In the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Olaf is located about about 530 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
The Atlantic basin remains very quiet. The combination of moderate to strong wind shear and dry air is making for quite hostile conditions for development. There are a few areas of thunderstorms, though no development is anticipated.
West Pacific infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge
Western Pacific:
As of Thursday night, EDT, the center of Typhoon Parma was located near 14.8 north and 125.8 east, or about 310 miles east of Manila, capital of the Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were near 140 mph with gusts to 165 mph. Movement was to the northwest at 15 mph. Parma weakened very slightly Thursday midday due to entrainment of dry air and some wind shear.
Parma will continue to track to the northwest over the next 24 hours. Parma can again briefly regain super typhoon status during any pulse in strength during this time before nearing the northeastern coast of Luzon, where landfall is possible later Friday or Friday night, EDT. Rain is already falling on portions of the Philippines and will likely intensify into Friday, especially over Luzon. A landfall would result in destructive winds reaching land together with widespread flooding rain. Manila, still cleaning up in the aftermath of Ketsana's floods, would be adversely affected by any return of heavy rain.
Slower forward speed of the typhoon would also result in heavier rainfall and increased flooding risk. Parma could stall near the northern tip of Luzon over the weekend.
Typhoon Melor was near 14.3 north and 150.7 east, or about 305 miles east of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds were near 140 mph with gusts to 165 mph. Movement was to the west-northwest at 5 mph. Melor will continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 24-48 hours, probably passing to the north of Guam near Saipan later Friday and Friday night, EDT. Strengthening is expected over the next 24-48 hours as well, so destructive winds and flooding rain could impact Saipan. Melor could reach super typhoon status for a time over the next couple of days.
Current Tropical Systems:
Typhoon 19W (Parma) Warning #19
Issued at 02/0900Z
- TC Warning Text
- TC Warning Graphic
- Prognostic Reasoning
- JMV 3.0 Data
- Multispectral Satellite Imagery
- Satellite Fix Bulletin
Typhoon 20W (Melor) Warning #13
Issued at 02/0900Z
- TC Warning Text
- TC Warning Graphic
- 3 Hour Position Update Graphic
- Prognostic Reasoning
- JMV 3.0 Data
- Multispectral Satellite Imagery
- Satellite Fix Bulletin
Eastern Pacific:
As of 8:00 PM PDT the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near 20.7 north, 117.8 west or about 530 miles west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Olaf was moving west northwest at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was estimated at 1002 millibars or 29.59 inches. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the storm's center mostly on the east side of the storm.
Tropical Storm Olaf : image courtesy NOAA click to enlarge
Olaf has only a short amount of time to intensify further. The storm is on the northern edge of warmer water with strong shear to the north and west of the storm. As the storm moves further northwest it will move into these less favorable conditions later tomorrow and tomorrow night. This will cause the storm to weaken back to a depression by Saturday. A strong upper level system to the north of Olaf has a trough axis extending southward. This will create the strong shear over the tropical storm and help guide the system on a more northerly then northeasterly course. The mid and upper level part of the storm will rapidly move northeast while the lower level feature lags behind. This low level center might reach falls apart entirely. So, the odds are against this system bringing any strong winds to the Baja peninsula. However, the moisture from Olaf will bring showery rainfall over the central and southern Baja peninsula tomorrow and Saturday. The moisture will bring heavier, perhaps flooding rainfall to the higher terrain of west central Mexico tomorrow night, Saturday and perhaps on Sunday.
Tropical Storm 18E (Olaf) Warning #04
Issued at 02/1000Z
- TC Warning Text
- TC Warning Graphic
- JMV 3.0 Data
Hurricane links:
2009 Hurricane Season Links
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (Surforecasts)
NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA)
West Pacific Typhoon Tracking (HZN)
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (SURForecasts)
What is a Hurricane ?
Survey: Map Surfing’s future
More USA/Cen. Amer. surfing news available here
Check the latest East Coast Surf Reports and Forecasts
New! B2B News ASBE-Surf | Receive News-Alerts
Complied by SV editors courtesy of informaion provided by NOAA
Environment - Surfersvillage |
Contests
Hurricane Check
Printer friendly
Send to a friend
Podcasts
Newsfeeds
Galleries
Email
SV TV
Mobile