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Hurricane Ida Now a Category 2
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 8 November, 2009 : - - Ida continues to spin over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane. New hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast. The storm is in an environment favorable for some additional strengthening. For more details, see below.
In the Eastern Pacific basin, two weak areas of low pressure are being tracked, but neither area is on the verge of becoming a depression or storm. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms west of the Marshall Islands has become Tropical Storm 25W. A couple of disturbances, one in particular, are also being watched across the Indian Ocean.
Hurricana Ida courtesy NOAA Click image to enlage (latest version)
Hurricane Ida Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane in the Yucatan Channel
8-NOV-2009 18:14pm GMT - Hurricane Ida is moving northward through the Yucatan channel between Cancun and Cuba. It is bringing strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba and the extreme eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. As of 1 p.m. EST, the storm was located near 21.7 north, 86.1 west or about 100 miles north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds are 100 mph, which makes Ida a category 2 hurricane. Ida is moving toward the northwest at 10 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 978 mb.
A hurricane watch has been issued for the central Gulf Coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Mexico Beach, Florida. This does not include New Orleans. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, from Playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch is in effect from Tulum to Playa del Carmen. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio and the Yucatan region from Punta Allen to Playa del Carmen and from Cabo Catoche to San Felipe. There is also a tropical storm watch for Cuba's Isle of Youth.
Recent Air Force hurricane hunter reconnaissance data suggests that Ida may not be finished strengthening just yet, with a recent drop in pressure. The system is moving across an area of very warm water and is expected to intensify slightly this afternoon and evening.
The western flank of Ida will bring strong winds and heavy rain across the northeast corner of the Yucatan Peninsula today. Fortunately, the southwesterly shear is sending the storm's worst impacts on its northeast flank, but areas like Cancun, Puerto Juarez, Isla Mujeres and Isla Blanca can have winds to near hurricane force before Ida pushes away to the north tonight. There also will be tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain over the western tip of Cuba.
North Atlantic infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge
The window for Ida to strengthen looks as though it will close tonight. As the system moves northward into the central Gulf of Mexico, it will encounter increasing west to southwesterly wind shear and progressively cooler waters. We also see a non-tropical area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf that will be lifting northward tonight.
The combination of this feature plus rain on Ida's northern flank will spread rain over the central Gulf Coast tonight, well in advance of Ida's center. Widespread heavy rain will fall from the Florida Panhandle through Louisiana on Monday; some of this rain can produce flooding. There will also be strong winds piling up water along the coast, and as a result there is concern for coastal flooding over the central Gulf Coast, including New Orleans.
Ida will be merging with an upper-level trough early this week and could become extra-tropical as early as Tuesday morning. The bulk of Ida's moisture will lift through the Southeast, bringing the threat for heavy rain to cities like Montgomery, Atlanta and Charlotte, while the center of the storm may also cross the Southeast, or meander over the northeast Gulf as a non-tropical low pressure area.
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Pacific infrared satellite - Click image to enlarge
Tropical Storm 25W
As of Sunday morning, EST, Tropical Storm 25W was located near 21.8 north, 158.7 east or about 550 miles west-northwest of Wake Island. Maximum-sustained winds around 50 mph with higher gusts. Motion was to the east-northeast at 12 mph.
Tropical Storm 25W remains poorly organized, although some convection near the center of circulation has allowed the storm to strengthen briefly. This storm will continue to encounter wind shear which will prevent rapid intensification. Tropical Storm 25W is only expected to accelerate to the northeast over the next few days, posing no threat to any major land areas.
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