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Predictions call for growing intensity of 2015 El Nino event





Environment News

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology predicts substantial El Nino

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 14 May, 2015 - Sydney, Australia - Today the Australian Bureau of Meteorology announced their prediction of a "Substantial" El Nino year. 

The BBC reports that the event would become more substantial later in the year. 

"This is a proper El Nino effect, it's not a weak one," David Jones, manager of climate monitoring and prediction at the Bureau of Meteorology, told the BBC.

"You know, there's always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we'd suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event."

According to the report, "In the tropical Pacific Ocean, scientists operate a network of buoys that measure temperature, currents and winds. The data - and other information from satellites and meteorological observations - is fed into complex computer models designed to predict an El Nino. However, the models cannot predict the precise intensity or duration of an El Nino, or the areas likely to be affected, more than a few months ahead. Researchers are trying to improve their models and observational work to give more advance notice."

The 2010 El Nino was considered responsible for the weak Southeast Aisan monsoons, Southern Australian, Philippian, and Ecuadorian droughts, as well as North American blizzards. 

Prof Eric Guilyardi of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading told the BBC it would become clear in the summer whether this year might be different.

"The likelihood of El Nino is high but its eventual strength in the winter when it has its major impacts worldwide is still unknown," he said.

"We will know in the summer how strong it is going to be."

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